Insights

Divergence as Advantage
Insight

Divergence as Advantage

July 2026 delivers a sobering lesson in the fragility of peace dividends. The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, hailed in June as a historic breakthrough, proved to be precisely what sceptics warned it was: a framework without enforcement. By mid-July, renewed US military strikes on Iran, tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and President Trump's threat to reimpose a naval blockade had pushed Brent crude back above $90/bbl erasing much of June's normalisation.
July 30, 2026